What Color Is Your Lambo, 2012 Edition

Again we reach the time where month-to-month economic data, ignored for years at a time, data only tangentially related to the power of executive office, becomes the basis upon which we make long-term political decisions.  Some new unemployment numbers came out today, they look good for the President, especially in light of his punch-pulling, wonky performance in the first presidential debate.

I think that people vastly overestimate the control the President has over many elements of the economy, especially the stock market.  However, people tend to use some of these indicators as measurements of the President's success, especially right around election time.

"It's the economy, stupid," as James Carville memorably said.  Obama got a boost in 2008 from bad numbers rolling out in the early fall.  Reagan destroyed Carter in 1980's stagflating economy.

This year, if Romney is to charge back, it will be on the strength of bad economic news as he follows the standard challenger's game-plan - assail the incumbent as the cause of any and all things bad in the country.  Write some checks with your mouth that your ass may or may not be able to cash once you get elected.  Obama did the same to the GOP in 2008, and found out that steering the economy isn't quite the same as ordering an admiral where to take his aircraft carrier.  Perhaps this is because the President is really just the people's elected zeitgeist, one who is expected to set the tone for the country through his or her leadership.

This all reminds me of a recent Freakonomics podcast (which was in fact an updated reprise of a 2010 podcast).  If you want to know what people as diverse as Don Rumsfeld, Joe Maddon, John Ashcroft and a whole crapload of economists think about the actual power (or lack thereof) of the presidency, check out this March, 2012 episode of Freakonomics Radio.  Rumsfeld's opinions are perhaps the most interesting.  As much as I dislike the guy's personality and politics, he has been either an advisor to or cabinet member for every GOP president since Nixon.

Freakonomics Radio, March 29, 2012 - The Power of the President

Don't call it a comeback, I been here for years

The big news today was that Al Gore and the IPCC won the Nobel Peace Prize for their work on global climate change. I find Al Gore to be a really facsinating bol, and maybe this Nobel will bring some awareness to the media age devaluation of politics which Gore has come to represent. In a nutshell, Gore, after being millimeters away from the presidency, said "fuck it" and decided that he could make more impact free of the restraints and ethical compromises inherant in politics. Many have understood that politics isn't the sole arena of power in this country, but few have been able to speak from outside the political realm with the authority that Gore can, only because of his former position of power. I still haven't formulated any real statement as to the nature and effectiveness, generally speaking, of this "insider-outsider" thing he's been doing, but no matter what the circumstances, he'll be bustin' at y'all daily for some time to come.