Friday, July 01, 2011

Cliffhanger



I saw Cliff Lee pitch this week - he faced the minimum 27 Red Sox, giving up a couple of hits but getting as many double plays from his D. Complete game win, 29 straight scoreless innings. Turns out he is the 3rd starting pitcher in the last century to drive in more runs in a month (2) than he let up (1). Crazy shit.

He still is, statistically, the third best pitcher on his own team. According to Baseball Reference, up until this point in the season, Halladay's WRP (wins compared to replacement player aka WAR) is 4.6, Hamels' is 4.0 and Lee's is 3.8. I did an analysis on the "great rotations" of all time over on Just Sayin after the Lee acquisition. Here is a brief review:

1927 New York Yankees
Waite Hoyt (22-7, 2.63, 5.6)
Urban Shocker (18-6, 2.84, 2.7)
Herb Pennock (19-8, 3.00, 3.0
Dutch Ruether (13-6, 3.38, 1.6)
George Pipgras (10-3, 4.11, 1.3)
Avg WRP = 2.84
Total WRP = 14.2


1954 Cleveland Indians
Early Wynn (23-11, 2.73, 5.2)
Mike Garcia (19-8, 2.64, 5.1)
Bob Lemon (23-7, 2.72, 4.2)
Art Houtteman (15-7, 3.35, 1.3)
Bob Feller (13-3, 3.09, 1.7)
Avg WRP = 3.5
Total WRP = 17.5

1993 Atlanta Braves
Greg Maddux (20-10, 2.36, 6.2)
Tom Glavine (22-6, 3.20, 3.8)
Steve Avery (18-6, 2.94, 4.0)
John Smoltz (15-11, 3.62, 2.8)
Avg WRP = 4.2
Total WRP = 16.8
(Avg = 3.4, Tot = 17 with Pete Smith: 4-8, 4.37, 0.2)

1971 Baltimore Orioles
Mike Cueller (20-9, 3.08, 2.7)
Pat Dobson (20-8, 2.90, 3.1)
Jim Palmer (20-9, 2.68, 4.1)
Dave McNally (21-5, 2.68, 3.1)
Avg WRP = 3.25
Total WRP = 13

2003 Oakland A's
Barry Zito (14-12, 3.30, 4.9)
Tim Hudson (16-7, 2.70, 6.7)
Ted Lilly (12-10, 4.34, 2.0)
Mark Mulder (15-9, 3.13, 5.1)
Avg WRP = 4.675
Total WRP = 18.7

1998 Atlanta Braves
Greg Maddux (18-9, 2.22, 6.1)
Tom Glavine (20-6, 2.47, 5.6)
Denny Neagle (16-11, 3.55, 2.0)
Kevin Millwood (17-8, 4.08, 0.6)
John Smoltz (17-3, 2.90, 3.2)
Avg WRP = 3.5
Total WRP = 17.5

I used those averages just to balance out the 4 vs. 5 man rotations, but the WRP stat is cumulative (I think?), and at this point in the year, Roy/Cliff/Cole have accounted for 12.4 wins relative to a replacement (read- bargain) pitcher. The season is only half over. Toss an oft-injured Oswalt in there, with his 1.1 WRP, and spot starter Vance Worley with his 1.1 and you are talking about a rotation that has provided more value to its team over half a season (14.6 wins) than the entire rotation of the 1927 Yankees or 1971 Orioles did over the course of a whole year! If they keep up the pace, or even pitch half as well as they did in the first half, it will be the most valuable pitching staff in the modern history of baseball. Since the Phillies hit like shit now, the timing couldn't be better.